Jan 16, 2023 at 05:24For the first time since June 2022, the price of bitcoin surpassed $20,000 and briefly stayed at $21,000. This happened from January 15 to 16.
Bitcoin at the beginning of 2022 was trading at $40,000-47,000, which is below the historical record of $68,000 but twice as high as now. In this regard, the figure of $40,000 is a threshold, after crossing which bitcoin may fly even higher.
One of the bullish signals is that the price of BTC closed above the 200-day SMA
Or simple moving average. The SMA takes data over a certain period of time and shows the average price of that asset for the data set. The difference between the SMA and the base average in past prices is that with the SMA, once a new data set is entered, the oldest data set is ignored. for the first time since December 2021. A trader going by the nickname “Obringer” pointed this out.
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Also, bitcoin showed 12 consecutive “green” days, which was the second successful streak in its history. Only in November 2013 did the price rise longer. At that time, stable growth was observed for 15 days in a row.
Why is bitcoin going up?
The gradual growth of digital gold and the first cryptocurrency began in early 2023 due to falling unemployment and inflation in the United States.
Another reason: lawyers for the bankrupt crypto exchange FTX found more than $5 billion in liquid assets. These are cash, liquid cryptocurrency, and liquid investment securities found in the bankruptcy case. Other details were not disclosed during the court hearing, where they were informed. This amount does not include $425 million in cryptocurrencies, which were seized by the Securities Commission of The Bahamas. These assets may be sold to return some of the money to the affected FTX investors. And this information generally improved sentiment in the market, which apparently considered that the worst for cryptocurrencies is over and that the price already includes the most negative news.
Bitcoin was not the only one to rise in price. Almost all altcoins surged.
Bitcoin price prediction in 2023
Bears
The “bears” say in their predictions that the current rally is a major “bull trap,” not a “bull run.” According to Forbes, Mark Mobius, a billionaire and founder of Mobius Capital Partners, predicted a huge drop in 2022 and now believes Bitcoin could fall as low as $10,000.
Matthew Sigel, investor and head of digital asset research at VanEck, predicts a drop to the $12,000 level because of higher energy prices.
And according to a forecast by global bank Standard Chartered, bitcoin could fall to the $5,000 level in 2023.
Although bitcoin rose earlier this year, it is among the riskier assets, such as stocks. That’s why Bill Tai, a venture capitalist and crypto veteran thinks bitcoin is unlikely to retest its historic high of $68,000, but it may have already bottomed out.
“I think there’s a little bit more downside, but I don’t think there’s going to be a lot,” he told CNBC.
Tai added that BTC could potentially fall to $12,000 before jumping up again.
Meltem Demirors, chief strategy officer at CoinShares, believes bitcoin is not seeing a big influx of money. Therefore, the first cryptocurrency is likely to trade in the lower range of $15,000 to $20,000 and in the upper range of $25,000 to $30,000.
“I don’t think there’s a lot of forced selling remaining, which is optimistic. But again, I think the upside is quite limited because we also don’t see a lot of new inflows coming in,” Demirors told CNBC.
Bulls
Ed Moya, a senior market analyst at Oanda, wrote on Market Pulse that bitcoin prices can only be shaken by liquidity problems at major exchanges.
“There is no shortage of news across crypto markets, and a lot of it is speculative. We will be talking a lot about FTX for months to come, but what will drive the cryptos is if Binance, Coinbase, Lbank, or Coinsbit have any liquidity crunches. A lot of bad news has been priced in, so it might take another downfall of a major crypto company or a de-risking movement on Wall Street to take bitcoin below its recent low,” he believes.
Top trader PlanB is modest in his bitcoin forecasts.
They are bullish, but longer term. In 2024, the halvingBitcoin halving is when the reward for mining is halved. The halving occurs every four years. The next one is expected in the last quarter of 2023-early 2024. Miners which will result in a price of $32,000, after which 2025 will be the start of a real bull market with Bitcoin hitting $100,000.
My 2 sats on #bitcoin price:
– November 2022 low of $15,5K was the bottom
– BTC has crossed Short Term Holder (STH) and will rise into 2024-halving and subsequent 2025 bull market. Several on-chain signals confirm STH signal.
– 2024 halving will be >$32K
– 2025 bull market >$100K pic.twitter.com/0QtbeOXwsG— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) January 12, 2023
Halving is usually seen as positive for the Bitcoin price, as it helps reduce supply and, consequently, increases the value of this digital asset.
CakeDeFi CEO Dr. Julian Hosp believes the market has yet to see a true pump. He is inclined to think that there will be many more ups and downs in prices this year. And Bitcoin won’t be able to cross the $40,000 mark.
I am dead honest, if #bitcoin breaks 20k and never goes back below 18k, I was dead wrong. Would never expect that. I am happy about higher prices. Bitcoin at 40k would solve the entire industry’s problems – but I would have never believed it at this stage of the market.
— Dr. Julian Hosp (@julianhosp) January 13, 2023
Fear and greed index bitcoin
Last week’s analysis of emotions and feelings from various sources showed extreme fear (25), and over the past month, fear (28). This means that as of January 16, there is more confidence in bitcoin in the crypto market.
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