Is nuclear winter coming? You can now make a crypto bet on whether Putin will press the red button or not

Whatever the times, whatever the prognosis. Cryptocurrency betting site Polymarket has been attracting attention for a long time because of too sensitive topics. This time, the service made headlines after accepting bets for and against Russia using nuclear weapons before 2023.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Russian Federation detonates a nuclear device in an offensive capacity by December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“To satisfy a “Yes” resolution, the detonation of a nuclear device must be in an offensive capacity (whether deliberate or accidental), must not be a test, and must be either claimed by the Russian Federation or considered by a preponderance of credible reporting and/or information from credible sources to be from the Russian Federation. For the purpose of this market’s resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting,” the description says.

As of October 24, only 8% bet their money that the Russian Federation would use nuclear weapons by the end of the year. The remaining 92% bet that the dictator would not press the red button.

UK prime minister Liz Truss, COVID-19, and Donald Trump

The platform works with a variety of predictions on which to bet. For example, the probability of Liz Truss becoming Britain’s shortest-serving prime minister as of October 19, 2022, was 56%.

The 78th British Prime Minister since September 6, she announced her retirement on October 20. The previous record for the shortest British premiership was held by George Canning, who died after 119 days in 1827. 

Also, the platform was used to bet whether Donald Trump would get into the White House again, whether singer Nicki Minaj would get the COVID-19 vaccine by November 29, 2021, and whether Elon Musk’s SpaceX would reach outer space by the end of last year. 

What is a Polymarket, and how does it work?

Polymarket is a betting protocol developed by the world-renowned company Polygon and led by 24-year-old founder Shane Coplan in 2021. The platform offers events for betting, and the task of the players is to choose the betting option, whether the market will be correct or the presented event will not happen. It has gained particular popularity by betting during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus.

Earlier this year, the site was fined $1.4 million and ordered by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to stop offering inappropriate markets for not registering with it. Polymarket then began allowing access only to users outside the U.S.

To participate in the betting, the user has to create a portfolio of forecasts, and depending on their passage receives a profit.