Has all the worst already happened? What’s next for the crypto market?

A Reddit user reviewed the cryptocurrency market and wondered what would happen in the industry next. Nine months have passed since the bear market. During that time, the digital assets market has changed unrecognizably: top altcoins and stablecoins went to about $0, Bitcoin has dropped by -50%, rose +66% to fall again by 66%, lender platforms like Celsius are bankrupt, and more. Reddit users answered the question of what else to expect from the market.

Nine months of winter

It is worth mentioning that this is not the first crypto winter. Since the creation of Bitcoin in 2009, the industry has been on the verge of collapse three times. The first crypto winter happened in 2014–2015. In December 2013, the Bitcoin exchange rate almost halved after China reported a ban on digital assets. In February 2014, the popular crypto exchange Mt.Gox was hacked, and 744,000 bitcoins were stolen. As a result, the company announced bankruptcy and shut down, and panic broke out in the market. From that moment, the first long-term fall of Bitcoin began, which users called crypto winter. During this time, the Bitcoin price dropped 87%.

The following crypto winter happened in 2017–2018. At the beginning of 2017, BTC was worth $960, it passed the $5k mark in September, and on December 17, the coin raised to $20k.

In December 2017, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reported creating BTC futures trading. On December 18, 2017, they launched, and the price of Bitcoin began to decline. In five days, the rate dropped by $8k (40%) — on December 22, it was about $12k. On January 30, Facebook, Twitter, and Google banned their platforms from advertising cryptocurrencies and binary options. After that, the price of Bitcoin continued to decrease. By 2018, BTC had fallen 84% from its peak.

To summarize the current crypto crash quickly, here’s what happened:

• a top altcoin and its stablecoin went to pretty much 0$;
• Bitcoin has dropped -50%, climbed back up +66% to fall again -66%;
• multiple exchanges took a heavy hit laying off workers and losing a lot of value;
• DeFi is losing trust;
• lenders like Celsius are bankrupt;
• NFT hype is in a freefall;
• the crypto market cap has fallen from $1.6T to $650B.

However, companies and investors still trust cryptocurrencies and continue to buy coins. This raises the question of what will happen next because if the crypto winter continues, the investments of the above investors are at risk.

Some predictions

It is unlikely to be possible to say what will happen for sure, even with the most detailed and high-quality market analysis. One of the reasons is that unlike, e.g., the stock market, cryptocurrencies have not existed for so long, and historically there is not enough data that can be used to predict the future. However, nothing prevents us from at least guessing. And here’s what Reddit users think about it (we chose the craziest):

• another 50% drop, maybe a 50% recovery from there, and then sideways for a year or longer;
• the Merge still hasn’t happened after 15 September;
• mass liquidations of BAYC and other NFTs;
• in opposite lots of NFTs in OpenSea;
• SEC has already stated that Bitcoin is a commodity, but they may also officially rule everything else security that must be registered;
• scammer Craig Wright has his day in court against Hodlnaut in Oslo, Norway. Craig loses because there is no evidence other than forgeries. Mass media finally realizes what we all know — he isn’t Satoshi (but who is?);
• the bottom hasn’t happened yet ($10k or $12k would be maximally painful);
• Tether collapse;
• shitcoins didn’t die;
• China is banning Bitcoin.

So far, these are just words and assumptions, but knowing the world of cryptocurrencies, we can be sure that anything could happen. The main thing is to be as ready as possible for any outcome: follow the market news, choose the right investment strategy, stay positive, and invest only as much as you are ready to lose.