More than ten months have passed since Bitcoin was worth a record $69K. Since then, the value of the cryptocurrency has dropped noticeably, and it is still unclear where the minimum bar is. In June, the price per coin fell below $17.8K, and many still think that was the bottom, but some believe it is still in the future.
Reddit users are still wondering if that was the bottom when Bitcoin broke through the $17K mark or if it is still to come. There are more arguments both for and against on both sides. Let’s break down both positions.
Reddit user fan_of_hakiksexydays made five arguments why $17K was the bottom. Moreover, according to him, unless we have a prominent black swan event (A market collapse that exceeds six standard deviations. An extremely rare event in terms of probability) in the next two months, the chance of seeing a lower price becomes increasingly slim.
Five reasons why Bitcoin won’t fall below 17K.
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According to analysts’ observations, past bull markets have been less intense. The same can be said of bear markets. Each cycle of decline to the bottom gets smaller and smaller.
Also, the timeline from ATH to the bottom is getting shorter: it took 405 days in the bear market in 2014 and 364 days in 2018. The current collapse has taken 308 days so far. If there is another bottom, it will happen in the next few weeks, or, according to fan_of_hakiksexydays, it has already happened.
The chart below shows the 2018 bottom (top diagram) and a possible 2022 bottom.
If history repeats itself, the global price collapse has already happened, the bottom has also passed, and the bull market has started.
Analysts have noticed that Bitcoin is increasingly doing the opposite of what the stock market is doing. In their view, the correlation with stocks hasn’t grown since May 2022. The coin has become less consistent.
Typically, Bitcoin has a weak correlation with stocks. The cryptocurrency’s value only began to rise after the pandemic, as we see in the chart below.
Covid-2019 caused the bull market to reset and synchronize it with stocks. There is a chance that Bitcoin will no longer be tied to stocks, as it was in May and June 2022.
This happened despite the exceptional conditions (including a pandemic and a war). That says a lot.
If the fan_of_hakiksexydays data is accurate, then we have already entered a bull market, and all that remains is to wait for Bitcoin prices (and probably other cryptocurrencies with it) to start rising. However, some don’t believe the collapse is over. They think they can expect anything, as the market for digital assets is as unpredictable as possible. That’s why they think no one can tell where the price will go next.
According to Reddit user Low_Acanthisitta4445, the likelihood of any possible future event happening or not happening is already priced in. Merge already priced in. Inflation already priced in etc.
The fact is that the big industry players (companies, whale bulls and bears, CEX, regulators, and so on) will constantly influence the market, and no one can stop them. So no one but them can say for sure what will happen next.
What do you think about that? And what is your prediction for the future of Bitcoin, or are you adjusting to the market depending on the current situation and not making any forecasts? Please let us know in the comments.
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