Toncoin Traders Eye Recovery as Prices Drop Following Telegram CEO’s Arrest

Toncoin (TON) saw a sharp drop in value over the past 24 hours, with prices plunging up to 25%, reaching $5.24 on August 25. This followed the unexpected arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov by French authorities, which sparked a wave of panic selling. Durov is facing charges related to data privacy and cryptocurrency regulations.

Given Telegram’s close ties with Toncoin, with Durov playing a key role in its adoption, many traders reacted swiftly by selling their holdings. However, some believe the current downturn could present a buying opportunity if Durov’s arrest turns out to be an isolated issue.

Potential for a TON Rebound Similar to BNB

The current decline in TON’s value mirrors a similar pattern experienced by Binance’s BNB during the legal troubles of former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) earlier this year. In April, BNB fell by 13.5% just before CZ’s sentencing in the U.S. but later rallied, gaining nearly 35% from its lows to approach $700 by June.

This type of panic selling often occurs when significant figures like CZ or Durov face legal issues, but once the initial shock passes, the market tends to recover as traders reassess the situation. BNB’s rebound occurred once traders realized the legal challenges didn’t pose a long-term threat to Binance. A similar recovery could be in store for Toncoin, as traders may view the current dip as an opportunity to re-enter the market.

TON’s Technical Support and Potential Upside

From a technical standpoint, TON remains within a rising channel on its daily chart, with prices recently bouncing off the channel’s lower trendline, which has served as reliable support for much of the year. Additionally, the relative strength index (RSI) for TON hit 37.54 on August 25, approaching the oversold zone of 30, which often signals potential consolidation or recovery.

The upper boundary of this channel is near $8.50, suggesting that a return to this level could result in a 50% gain for TON. The RSI reading supports a bullish outlook, indicating that the coin may be primed for a rebound.

Futures Data Points to Growing Market Confidence

Further supporting a potential recovery for TON, futures market data shows increased interest and confidence among traders. Following Durov’s arrest, open interest (OI) in TON futures surged to $303.62 million, its highest level since July, while funding rates for eight-hour periods rose to a three-month peak of 0.0101%.

The rise in OI suggests more capital is flowing into TON’s futures market, and positive funding rates indicate traders are willing to pay a premium to hold long positions. This confidence may drive prices higher, with the possibility of TON reaching the $8.50 target and beyond if the current momentum continues.