Miraculous October: historically, this month has shown the best prices for Bitcoin. Will it make money this time?

Published by

Igor Grigorchenko

2 years ago

Statistics say that October and November are competing with each other for the title of the most bullish months for Bitcoin. What will happen this time? We collected the opinions of various experts in one article.

October opportunities

So far, everything is going according to statistical predictions. September has traditionally been a weak month for Bitcoin, according to a recent Bloomberg publication. But the following month, October, has almost always resulted in BTC taking off, according to historical data.

The virtual currency tends to rise roughly 25% in October and has, since 2015, advanced more than 85% of the time during it, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

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“For the average monthly moves, October ranks as the best for Bitcoin,” Bespoke’s Jake Gordon wrote in a note.

According to historical data, November is the second most favorable month for Bitcoin. Many analysts expect a price rally by the New Year.

Source: Bespoke & Bloomberg

The closer look

Adrian Zduńczyk, a trader and analyst at The ₿irb Nest, takes a very detailed look at this fall, trying to assess the probabilities of this already traditional Bitcoin rally. The following are the main analytics from his original thread.

Historically, BTC shows a favorable return tendency inversion from the worst performing September to the best performing November. On average, the Bitcoin returns over the next 2 months can be expected to increase:

Meanwhile, the medium-term breadth shows unfavorable conditions to support any longer-lasting breakouts. This is not an ideal environment for bullish crypto movements (yet):

The short-term breadth is recording an uptick — a move in the positive direction in favor of the short-term bulls. However, the local context must be backed by a broader perspective — it’s not the case just yet:

Therefore, $BTC is entering into a potentially bullish two months and a positive quarter overall. But, the current market conditions are not matching the bullish premises just yet. While it may well change at any time, traders should be cautious over the next two or three weeks:

As a result, all the data by month can be summarized in a similar table from The ₿irb Nest:

Igor Grigorchenko