It’s okay to dream: Bitcoin price predictions that never came true

Finder’s Bitcoin forecast report expects the coin to bottom at $13,676 and finish 2022 at $25,473. The poll further explains that only 29% of the report’s participants believe the crypto winter will end in 2022. Also, they generally expected Bitcoin to surpass $100k per coin by 2025.

However, no matter what anyone predicts, these are just assumptions that tend not always to come true. Wrong predictions happen pretty often. That’s why today we’ll tell you whether we can believe the forecasts in general and about some of them which never came true.

Can crypto exchange rate predictions be trusted at all?

Many forecasts can be found on the Internet both for individual cryptocurrencies and for the market as a whole. Their authors may include the media, practicing traders, well-known market participants, developers of new coins, etc. As a result, an investor collecting information for making the right decisions faces many opinions that contradict each other. That’s why there are several things to consider when making a prediction.

• due to the specifics of the crypto market, no forecast can provide 100% accurate information;
• it is never possible to predict how various events will affect the development of the market (for example, government bans).

Therefore, in the cryptocurrency market, forecast accuracy of 70–80% is already considered reasonably high. Such predictions should be based on a deep study of market analysis, the history of the selected cryptocurrency, the news background that surrounds it, the developers’ plans, etc. 

Who can make predictions?

Obviously, as in the traditional market, only experts can make good predictions. But you should treat their opinion with caution, at least because the followers and holders of crypto will always tend to say that it will flourish. Skeptics, in turn, will always argue the opposite.

Therefore, when studying a forecast, always pay attention to its author. It’s a good sign if he doesn’t hold direct interest in the market (not a member of the development team, not having significant assets in the cryptocurrency for which the forecast is made, etc.), and if he’s made a certain number of forecasts that have already come true in his track record.

Also, pay attention to whether the author took into account all the nuances that can affect the rate of the asset when making a forecast. In this case, we are talking about a variety of factors: the emergence of a competing cryptocurrency, tightening of government control over the cryptocurrency market, the demand for the coin, etc. 

An effective forecast cannot be a simple statement of its creator’s thoughts. For its development, techniques of fundamental and technical analysis of cryptocurrencies should be applied. Only then can the forecast be considered professional work, the data of which can be used to build a trading strategy. 

Predictions that never came true

Whether or not Finder’s prediction will come true, we will have to find out in the near future, but we know that a number of big-name predictions have not come true (yet). Among them: 

• Investor and billionaire Mike Novogratz expected Bitcoin to rise to $40k by the end of 2018.
• One of the first cryptocurrency billionaires, the Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss twins bought bitcoins at $120, and when the rate rose to $10k, they promised growth to $400k.
• MGT Capital Investments CEO John McAfee and many others experts believed Bitcoin would rise to $1 million.

This also includes a recent confession of famous motivational speaker and investor Jordan Belfort, better known as The Wolf of Wall Street, who said he was wrong about Bitcoin collapsing to zero. 

“At the time that I really hated crypto, I stand by everything I said about crypto in 2017 except for one thing. I was wrong about Bitcoin going to zero”, he said. 

Also, he advised crypto investors not to take a 12-month or 24-month horizon on Bitcoin. Instead, one should take a three, four, or five-year horizon. 

It’s worth to be mentioned, that not all analysts are so optimistic about Bitcoin’s growth in 2022. Some are confident that the coin will sooner or later approach the $100 thousand mark, but it is unknown when exactly. NextAdvisor reporters at the end of 2021 thought it would come true at the beginning of the new year. And cryptanalyst Matthew Hyland generally believes that by the end of the year, the coins will be worth $250k.

What do you think of the forecasts for cryptocurrencies? To what level do you think Bitcoin will reach by the end of the year? Tell us about it in the comments.