Filecoin or maybe Failcoin? FIL has fallen by 4000% in two years — current token position and forecasts

From the beginning of April to the end of May 2021, the value of Filecoin (FIL), an open-source cryptocurrency and digital payment system intended to be a blockchain-based cooperative digital storage and data, fell by 185.33% — from $186.46 to $68.35. By the end of the year the token had lost 450% from its high. Let’s discuss what caused it and whether it can rise again.

Filecoin falling

The value of the asset began to fall rapidly after the news about Filecoin CEO’s arrest in early April. The police in Guangxi (China) arrested Lai Chuhang on suspicion of fraud and pyramid organization.

As a part of the investigation, police arrested nearly 30 suspects and seized more than $50 million from them.

As a result, the value of the token fell in a few days from $186.46 to $156.68 (-19,01%), and by the end of April to $134.03 — a total of 39.12%. By the end of May, due to the ongoing news of new evidence and allegations, Filecoin had fallen to $68.35 (-172,8%) .

This was not the first time the company had been involved in cases related to illegal activities. In November 2020, several branch offices of the company in China were investigated by police for the same reasons, as well as for mining fraud. However, this had almost no effect on the value of the token.

From May to the end of July, the asset fell to $41.24 (another -65,74% or 352,13% of the peak). But then there was hope for recovery. However, it was short-lived. On September 6, the token jumped by 116,93% on the background of a general growth of the market but then went down again. By the end of the year, Filecoin had declined drastically and was worth $34.22 on January 1, 2022. In total, -444,89%. 

Before the drop, the value of the asset was rising, especially in March. This can also be seen in the above chart. From March 15 to 17, FIL increased by 40% (from $53.538 to $75), which, according to experts, was due to two factors.

• The growth of the company’s storage capacity (from 1 exabyte [one billion gigabytes] to 2,5).
• The growth interest from investors, exemplified by an addition of FIL by Grayscale. Bitcoin billionaire, Caperon Winklevoss, showed optimism toward Filecoin and its growth. About eight hours after the statement, Grayscale’s CEO announced that the company would add FIL to its lineup of investment products.

But after that, an investigation into the CEO of the company began, and the value of the token did not return to its previous levels.

Current price

2022 had no mercy on anyone, including FIL, and the coin fell in line with other assets. In one year, from January 1, 2022, to January 1, 2023, the token fell from $34.27 to $3.0091 (-672.32%).

At the time of writing, Filecoin ranks 32nd in terms of market capitalization, whereas in April 2021, the coin was ranked 22nd. The token can now be bought for $4.53, down 7.21% from a day ago. Thus, from its peak to its current values, Filecoin has lost 4016.11% or dropped 41 times in two years.

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On Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Justice announced a statement of international enforcement actions against cryptocurrency. The market reacted by falling. That probably extended to Filecoin as well.

Does FIL have the potential to grow to its historical peak?

According to Wallet Investor, after one year, the price of Filecoin might go down to $0.341. That makes FIL a bad, high-risk, one-year investment option.

This opinion goes against the prediction of Digital Coin Price. In the opinion of which, by the end of 2023, FIL is expected to reach a minimum price of $3.28, but is capable of getting a maximum level of $8.12. 

A more encouraging forecast is from CoinCodex, according to which Finecoin will grow to $14 by 2024.

The trader Bombay Trillionaire recommends paying attention now to the Chinese coins, which include FIL. As Chinese New Year approaches, he believes this may affect the value of the coin. In 2020, Filecoin was one of the most popular coins among traders in China. And in 2018, there was a huge hype around mining the coin when the company promoted all kinds of minting equipment.

What are your hopes and thoughts about Filecoin? Does this asset have any chance of returning to its former glory, or is there no way to get trust back? Write about it in the comments.